1) Social media backlash is coming as the economy grinds to a halt (even more so than it already has) and people only want to communicate on social platforms... not be spammed or marketed to. I expect the "Do Not Track" movement to pick up akin to the "Do Not Spam" movement that picked up steam after email became a daily facet of life and business. Social media didn't take as long for adoption and people are much wiser now. Expect more tribalization.
2) Mobile wins.
3) Track comes back to Twitter, revolutionizing online marketing as Google, Facebook, FriendFeed and affiliate networks (ha!) all try to implement the ability to track keywords across platforms.
4) More people switch off their cable and switch on the Hulu (cable begins to die the slow death of landlines).
5) Google and Facebook go on a buying spree in the early part of the year, snapping up platforms like Brightkite, Disqus, and perhaps FriendFeed. Promising web2.0 companies that don't get acquired start to hurt and start folding much to the annoyance of TechMeme.
6) Jim Kukral buys a Kindle on your recommendation since he doesn't listen to me.
7) Both Commission Junction and Linkshare are (re)sold to large American investment houses and/or one goes to Microsoft in an attempt to keep Google lagging in the display side.
8) President Obama charts course for nationwide high speed improvements and netbooks skyrocket in popularity and sales. Apple introduces netbook by the end of the year to capitalize but cheaper offerings from Dell and Asus are still the winners. Windows 7 is a big hit b/c it runs well on these machines.
9) Microsoft's Silverlight starts taking marketshare from Flash because of built-in ability to offer ads, track conversions and better mobile implementation.
10) Twitter offers a pro option - Track, groups, pics in stream and IM service. They then proceed to take over the world.
Honorable Mention: Numerous states institute "Amazon/Affiliate Tax" following NY and California's leads and causes many large merchants and retailers to rethink their "set it and forget it" affiliate strategy with the networks...
Mike Buechele
· 11 months ago
I can see Kukral's new video podcast, The Daily Kindle.
Andrew Wee
· 11 months ago
Some interesting ideas there, but the underlying assumption seems to be that supply is constrained?
More PPC buyers into the market could mean that more PPC networks emerge or new channels open up.
Image and video-based ads are still the exception, rather than the rule.
IMO the cream always rises to the top.
Mike Buechele
· 11 months ago
I hadn't considered that. Most of my frustration has been with Google so I didn't think of an alternative or the demand of a market creating another opportunity, Thanks Andrew.
Phoebe_b
· 11 months ago
Despite all the commentary recently about "death of the long tail" (at least in music) I agree with your analysis that niches big and small will remain relevant to cater to personal tastes.
Mike Buechele
· 10 months ago
Absolutely. The long tail is still there and if you're passionate about a topic then you can build something around it. There are somethings I love so much I don't care about making money from them, and if I do want to I can leverage it into something else that has a larger market. Like starting with a blog about the Toronto Blue Jays and leveraging that into a book deal. I've seen it happen.
TrishaLyn
· 10 months ago
My husband wants a Kindle... he's starting to sound like Sam lol
mohdmatheen
· 10 months ago
hey mike.... your predictions looks so accurate :) . how are you ? Happy New Year .
Mike Buechele
· 10 months ago
Thanks Matheen! Things are going great. I'm leaving for Las Vegas right now for a great conference. Good to hear from you!
All Comments
1) Social media backlash is coming as the economy grinds to a halt (even more so than it already has) and people only want to communicate on social platforms... not be spammed or marketed to. I expect the "Do Not Track" movement to pick up akin to the "Do Not Spam" movement that picked up steam after email became a daily facet of life and business. Social media didn't take as long for adoption and people are much wiser now. Expect more tribalization.
2) Mobile wins.
3) Track comes back to Twitter, revolutionizing online marketing as Google, Facebook, FriendFeed and affiliate networks (ha!) all try to implement the ability to track keywords across platforms.
4) More people switch off their cable and switch on the Hulu (cable begins to die the slow death of landlines).
5) Google and Facebook go on a buying spree in the early part of the year, snapping up platforms like Brightkite, Disqus, and perhaps FriendFeed. Promising web2.0 companies that don't get acquired start to hurt and start folding much to the annoyance of TechMeme.
6) Jim Kukral buys a Kindle on your recommendation since he doesn't listen to me.
7) Both Commission Junction and Linkshare are (re)sold to large American investment houses and/or one goes to Microsoft in an attempt to keep Google lagging in the display side.
8) President Obama charts course for nationwide high speed improvements and netbooks skyrocket in popularity and sales. Apple introduces netbook by the end of the year to capitalize but cheaper offerings from Dell and Asus are still the winners. Windows 7 is a big hit b/c it runs well on these machines.
9) Microsoft's Silverlight starts taking marketshare from Flash because of built-in ability to offer ads, track conversions and better mobile implementation.
10) Twitter offers a pro option - Track, groups, pics in stream and IM service. They then proceed to take over the world.
Honorable Mention: Numerous states institute "Amazon/Affiliate Tax" following NY and California's leads and causes many large merchants and retailers to rethink their "set it and forget it" affiliate strategy with the networks...
More PPC buyers into the market could mean that more PPC networks emerge or new channels open up.
Image and video-based ads are still the exception, rather than the rule.
IMO the cream always rises to the top.
Happy New Year .